Bitcoin continues to send mixed signals, leaving even major asset managers and major players divided on its 2026 price outlook.
In the bullish camp are VanEck, Bitwise, GrayscaleBernstein and Coinbase are hoping for a strong recovery in 2026 and a potential new all-time high of $150,000. Bitwise and VanEck even believe that 4 year cycle ended after Bitcoin closed 2025 in the red, defying past market patterns.
In return, the sector will fall in line with US stocks and BTC could move higher. As a result, a typical ‘bear market’ may not exist or may be less pronounced.
However, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, disagrees with these calls. In a recent statement he said replied,
“I’m skeptical of the idea that bear markets won’t happen again. For now, the line in the sand for Bitcoin is at $65,000 (previous high), and below $45,000.”
Source: Jurrien Timmer/X
According to Timmer, if BTC consolidates for a year, it could reach the $65k level. He cited the Bitcoin Power Law and other proprietary models. Most bears have been eyeing the $65,000 to $75,000 zone as a potential recovery for the next cycle of 2027-2028.
Bitcoin capital inflows are declining
For CryptoQuant, BTC entered a bear market in early November after falling below the 1-year moving average.
Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, too strengthened a similar bearish position. However, he mentioned the slowing momentum of capital growth at the network level, as tracked by the Realized Cap indicator.
Source: CryptoQuant
A slowing or downtrend in the Realized Cap marked previous BTC bear markets in 2018-2020 and 2022-2023. On the other hand, capital inflow growth, which was green, coincided with bull runs.
In November 2025, the Realized Cap signaled bear market risk for the first time since 2023. If Realized Cap stagnation or a downward trend continues, it would reinforce past market distress trends.
If so, it would also dent the bullish 2026 outlook of some major players.
No market cycle top yet?
For VanEck, however, the current market cycle has not yet reached its peak and a new record could still be on the horizon in 2026.
According to VanEck’s head of Digital Assets Research: Matthew Sigelthe market has not yet reached the peak of this cycle. He cited the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP), a key cycle top indicator, as being below 0.70 (a level that marked previous market tops).
The director claimed there could be room for an upside rally as the RUP value of 0.43 meant the tactical cycle top was not imminent. Even though BTC rose to $126k last year.
Source: VanEck/Glassnode
Final thoughts
- Fidelity believes BTC’s bear market is still ahead and a dip to $65k or lower could be likely
- Realized Cap identified bear market risk for the first time since 2023.