Posted:
- ETH may reach lower highs for the rest of the year, an analyst explained.
- The short-term sentiment surrounding the altcoin has turned from hope to capitulation.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen told his 778,000 YouTube subscribers Ethereum [ETH] could be negatively influenced Bitcoins [BTC] pre-halving of the second stage. According to Cowen, the said season was previously hardly favorable for ETH and he explained that this cycle may not be any different.
Realistic or not, here it is The market cap of ETH in BTC terms
In the 29 minute duration sessionCowen highlighted that ETH was in dire shape before the halving in 2020. He also mentioned that the altcoin did not recover until much later after the four-year event was completed at that time.
Highs lower to capitulation
Although he admitted there was some upside down for ETH, most were intermittently short-lived. As a result, ETH’s likely move would be to reach lower highs for the remainder of the year, and possibly the first quarter of 2024.
For context, a lower high occurs when the price of an asset closes at a high, but that high is lower than the high at the end of the previous trading day. Cowen said that
“That doesn’t mean Ethereum can’t go up at all. This will probably happen in several phases. But the general direction should be down.”
At the time of writing, the price of ETH was $1,614, marking a decline of 12.61% over the past 30 days. Regardless of the price action, several indicators suggest the altcoin could be undervalued.
However, Cowen’s projection meant that ETH could remain undervalued until the end of the year. But what is the holder’s near-term view on Ethereum?
One metric that answers this question is the Short-Term Holder-Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL). As an indicator to assess the behavior of short-term investors, the STH-NUPL considers UTXOs younger than 155 days.
Source: Glassnode
A UTXO refers to unspent transaction output and shows where each transaction begins and ends. At the time of writing, STH-NUPL had slid from hope (orange) to capitulation (red). This transition implies that market players also share the view that the price of ETH would decrease further.
Read Ethereums [ETH] Price prediction 2023-2024
Look for an entry when ETH drops
Meanwhile, pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto opined that ETH’s performance against BTC has been impressive this cycle. According to his post on X (formerly Twitter), despite its low volatility, Ethereum is much more stable compared to other altcoins.
But just like the general sentiment, Daan expects that Ethereum will continue to lose its dominance to Bitcoin. At the time of writing, the value of ETH against BTC was 0.063. To emphasize his point, Daan mentioned the coin could fall 0.055. However, he also considered the stated value to be a good entry price.