- Aura Finance appeared to have a strong bearish bias towards the higher terms, despite recent gains
- The spike in dormant activity was concerning for long-term owners
Aura Finance [AURA] registered gains worth 26% in the last two days. Buying volume increased in the short term and momentum also shifted bullish on the daily time frame. This, in addition to a strong upward move for Bitcoin [BTC] on the price charts.
And yet the technical analysis showed that the longer-term trend was not bullish. The on-chain metrics also raised concerns about the sustainability of this rally. Ergo the question: can AURA bulls maintain the trajectory of the past two days?
The market structure was undefeated
Source: AURA/USDT on TradingView
On the daily time frame, AURA has hit a series of lower highs since mid-March. The drop below $0.68 in the second week of March turned the structure bearish again.
The altcoin is within this one-day bearish structure. Even though the RSI jumped above the neutral 50 to indicate bullish momentum, the trend would likely continue to move down. The Fibonacci retracement levels (light yellow) at $0.83 and $0.9 are expected to act as resistance and turn away the bulls.
The region of $0.85-$0.88 (highlighted in red) has also acted as a technical resistance zone. The OBV climbed higher last week, but did not reach its April high – a sign that buying pressure was present, but perhaps not enough.
A sales wave around the corner?
Source: Santiment
On-chain metrics also showed no bullishness for Aura Finance. Network growth has been consistent over the past two months, but values since February have been below 20.
This means that fewer than twenty unique addresses have been created on the network every day since late February, which could be a depressing finding for long-term investors.
Realistic or not, here is AURA’s market cap in BTC terms
During the nearly 30% rally over the past two days, dormant circulation recorded a huge spike, the largest in the past three months. As expected, a wave of token movement was noticed – a likely sign of selling pressure in the short-term upswing.
Finally, weighted sentiment has also been negative over the past month, underscoring how little power the bulls likely have.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.