Online gamblers on blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket are predicting that US President Joe Biden will withdraw from the upcoming US elections after his spotty performance at the presidential debate against Donald Trump.
Gamblers rate Biden’s chances of dropping out of the races are 38 cents to 63 cents. The bet has generated over $7 million in bets at the time of writing.
Likewise, startup Manifold’s forecast shows a similar sentiment. The firm reports that the chance that Biden will be the Democratic candidate for the coming elections plummeted from 94% the past day to 68%.
Jim Bianco of Bianco Research noted the exceptionally high number of bets placed, stating that prediction markets “are real-time, so when events like last night happen they can measure how much things have changed… Biden’s odds (blue line) fell much more than Trump’s (red line) rose.” He further noted:
“Our interpretation is that Biden is in a deep hole that he may not be able to climb out of. However, if Biden is replaced by someone acceptable, Trump may not win either.
In other words, Trump may have won a Pyrrhic victory last night.”
Why are people betting on a Biden dropout?
The actions of gamblers in the prediction markets reveal the extent of the reaction to Biden’s performance in the first presidential debate.
Market experts noted that replacing Biden just months before the election is unprecedented in modern times and would recently be considered unthinkable. Still, his debate performance has raised many questions about his health and cognitive skills.
Demetri Sevastopulo, US-China correspondent for the Financial Times, reported:
“The Democratic lawmaker tells me that a broad cross-section of Democrats in the House of Representatives texted each other during the debate with the same conclusion [of] Biden should drop out of the race. They propose an open convention to excite voters.”
Who could replace Biden?
Facts from Polymarket indicates that bettors are speculating on potential candidates to replace Biden. The site’s “Democratic Nominee 2024” market has generated nearly $62 million in bets, with Biden still in the lead.
Interestingly, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s chances have risen to 15%, reflecting growing support. Newsom, a Biden supporter, praised the president’s debate performance.
Meanwhile, Michelle Obama, the former US First Lady, has a 9% chance of being a contender, while Biden’s Vice President Kamala Harris is also a strong possibility, with an 8% chance.