- Technical analysis suggested that BTC could soon fall to $60,000 to gather liquidity before mounting a major rally.
- Data trends indicated that the sale of BTC by smaller wallets to larger wallets is a bullish sign.
Like Bitcoin [BTC] continues to dominate the cryptocurrency market, but recent price movements have caught the attention of investors and analysts alike. In recent months, Bitcoin has seen a significant increase, up more than 100% this year so far, and a notable 9.8% increase in the past week.
Despite reaching a new peak above $73,000 in March, Bitcoin is currently facing challenges in surpassing the $67,000 resistance level. Recently, after reaching a 24-hour high of $67,697, the price retreated slightly by 0.7%, bringing the current trading price to around $66,800.
This price action comes amid broader market trends, with analysts keeping a close eye on Bitcoin’s performance.
Rekt Capital, a well-known crypto analyst, has pointed out that Bitcoin is in its final halving trajectory before it is expected to resume an uptrend.
The analyst highlighted that the Halving Retrace reached -23.6% this year, the deepest retrace of the current cycle, signaling what many consider the “last buying opportunity” before a significant post-halving rally.
Understanding the reaccumulation phase and predicting future movements
According to Rekt Capital, the Halving Retrace has been completed set the stage for the Re-Accumulation Range, a crucial phase in Bitcoin’s market cycle. This range usually starts a few weeks before the halving and ends with a breakout a few weeks later.
The price during this phase is expected to fluctuate between approximately $60,000 and $70,000, with possible extensions beyond these limits. The duration of this reaccumulation phase could last up to 150 days (or about 5 months), after which Bitcoin could enter a “parabolic uptrend” marked by a notable price spike.
Historical data from 2020 shows a similar pattern, with Bitcoin undergoing a -19% retracement around its halving, followed by a 160-day consolidation period before entering a rapid growth phase.
In 2024, Bitcoin’s near -24% retracement around its halving suggests that, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin would consolidate for a similar period before entering a significant uptrend.
This potential for a substantial price increase after a period of stability provides insight into Bitcoin’s behavior after halving events.
Signs Point to a Bitcoin Rally
To complement this analysis, facts van Santiment indicates Bitcoin is hovering just above $66,100 as smaller traders liquidate their holdings amid a general market recovery over the past week.
Historically, this trend of smaller wallets selling to larger ones has been seen as a bullish indicator for Bitcoin.
Source: Santiment
Moreover, the technical analysis of BTC’s daily chart indicates a possible return to the $60,000 level to accumulate more liquidity before a parabolic rise.
Should Bitcoin reach this retracement level, it could pave the way for a strong rally that could see the cryptocurrency easily breach the $67,000 resistance.
Source: TradingView
AMBCryptos recent report adds another layer of insight, noting that the stablecoin supply ratio was below the Simple Moving Average over the 200 periods, but above the lower Bollinger Band.
When the price of Bitcoin reached $56,000 in early May and recovered, it was a major moment of interest. The oscillator remains in the lower band, indicating that further gains are likely, and that the stablecoin supply ratio has shown a downward trend over the past month.
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This aggressive trend since October 2023, together with periods of ‘stasis or pullback’ such as those in early January and mid-May, precede significant price movements.
After the January pullback, Bitcoin prices rose effortlessly past the $46,000 resistance. In the next 2 to 4 weeks, a similar rally could potentially push Bitcoin well past the $73,000 mark as suggested by market trends and analytical forecasts.