- Bitcoin’s price action over the past two years correlated with the start of the 2013-2017 bullish cycle.
- Whales and address growth support long-term bullish expectations.
Have you recently thought about where Bitcoin [BTC] could be in the next two to five years? Well, longer time frames are difficult to estimate due to the diverse list of factors that make it difficult to accurately predict the outcome. But what if Bitcoin’s past could offer insight into what to expect in the future?
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A recent analysis suggests that Bitcoin is repeating a pattern previously seen during the bullish cycle from 2013 to 2017. It also looks at BTC’s performance from July 2021 to the present.
#Bitcoin price history could repeat itself! $BTC price trajectory after the all-time high in 2021 seems to reflect the 2013-2017 bullish cycle. pic.twitter.com/reCbCB8vCJ
— Ali (@ali_charts) August 4, 2023
Based on the above analysis, we see that Bitcoin’s performance over the past two years is similar to its performance in the first two years of the 2013-2017 cycle. It maintained this correlation over the past seven months.
If Bitcoin’s current cycle maintains the same correlation, we can expect Bitcoin to enter an exponential growth phase within the next two years.
Interestingly, the above observation aligns with the timeline of the next Bitcoin halving, which is expected to act as yet another bullish catalyst. We previously explored how lingering debt worries in the US could contribute to the next big wave of BTC adoption.
Whale activity is recovering in line with forecast
The same price analysis shows that whale participation is recovering in line with bullish expectations. Looking at whale activity over the past two years, we see a total outflow from August 2021 to April 2023. However, whale numbers have been increasing since April.
Source: Glassnode
The total number of Bitcoin addresses has grown steadily over the past two years. This positive growth confirmed that the retail segment is also embracing Bitcoin. Meanwhile, BTC’s HODLed of Lost Coins statistic has been steadily rising as well.
Source: Glassnode
Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price Forecast 2023-24
Bitcoin’s supply to long-term holders has also maintained an overall upward trajectory over the past two years. These observations further support the possibility that Bitcoin could deliver a bullish result over the next two years.
This long-term outcome could turn out to be the next bullish cycle. However, these are only speculative predictions based on recent observations. They therefore do not guarantee the absence of bearish short-term results.