Over the past 14 days, Bitcoin price has shown a significant uptrend of 14.5%, indicating a price revival. bullish sentiment. This rally comes as Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been trading for almost a month, with the market already taking this development into account. As a result, Bitcoin is back on its natural course and gaining momentum ahead of the scheduled halving in April.
Currently, Bitcoin has not only regained its bullish momentum after a brief dip towards the USD 38,500 level, but has also crossed the USD 45,300 mark. It’s getting closer to his now 25 months high of $49,000, with the $50,000 milestone within reach.
Reaching this level would significantly narrow the gap between the current price and Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) of $69,000. However, what are the main catalysts behind this uptrend, and how far can the Bitcoin price rise?
Reduction of GBTC flows and net positive BTC Spot ETF inflows
According to QCP Capital’s latest analysis, two key factors driving Bitcoin’s upward trajectory:
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) daily outflows have fallen from $500-600 million to $100-200 million. At the same time, total inflows across all Bitcoin ETFs are now positive. This shift in GBTC flows and the emergence of net positive BTC spot ETF inflows are contributing to the current bullish trend, according to the crypto trading firm’s analysis.
Additionally, notable price movements have been observed around spot ETF confirmations. Between 3:00 PM and 4:00 PM EST, QCP recorded that the Bitcoin price tends to tick higher, possibly due to the one-hour observation window used by the BlackRock ETF (IBIT) to track Net Asset Value (NAV). calculate..
Conversely, downward pressure is typically seen after 4:00 PM EST as GBTC operates a point fix, causing market makers to sell around and after the fix.
Strong performance of US equities
Despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and higher US yields thanks to robust February non-farm payroll data (353,000 actual versus 180,000 expected), US equities continue to perform strongly.
Companies like NVDA and META have recovered thanks to strong profits and positive headlines. Under-allocated investors will likely continue to buy stock declines as they chase returns.
According to the analysis, this bullish sentiment is expected to spill over to BTC and Ethereum (ETH), further fueled by the upcoming BTC halving and the ETH spot ETF stories.
Ultimately, the trading firm notes significant interest in accumulators, which allow investors to purchase Bitcoin or ETH at a “substantial discount” to the current spot price. This strategy is believed to provide an attractive opportunity for bullish investors looking to build long positions throughout the year.
Bitcoin price faces strong barriers on its way to $50,000
Despite the uptrend, notable resistance levels could hinder further upward movement and potentially lead to a consolidation phase for Bitcoin.
To accurately assess the resistances at the nearest term, the 1 hour chart indicates potential price paths for Bitcoin in the coming days if these bearish thresholds are crossed.
In the near future, the $45,500 level will emerge as Bitcoin’s next resistance level. This level previously marked a correction in the Bitcoin price shortly after the introduction of ETF trading.
Then, the next target would be the USD 46,600 level if it surpasses the immediate resistance at USD 45,500. While these two thresholds may present challenges, no significant resistance levels are visible on Bitcoin’s hourly chart until the $48,500 level.
This particular level represents the final hurdle for Bitcoin before it can regain its previous high of January 11, immediately following the US approval of ETFs. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Given the combined factors of Grayscale’s reduced sell-off and overall stock market performance, in addition to renewed investor sentiment, Bitcoin could potentially rise to and even surpass previous highs, marking new highs since the end of the crypto winter.
The key factor to watch is how Bitcoin’s price will react when it encounters these marked resistance walls and whether the buying pressure will be enough to put Bitcoin back on track towards the bullish momentum seen in early 2024 .
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
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