- Bitcoin could wait until the third or fourth quarter before the bull run continues
- The price of BTC could reach $101,500 before the end of 2024
Bitcoins [BTC] The journey to a higher value in the charts may take longer than initially expected. This seemed to be the case after AMBCrypto analyzed a few crucial on-chain metrics.
In fact, at the time of writing, the number of BTC was observed to decline. This decline could be a sign that most Bitcoin holders are inclined to collect more of the coin, rather than sell it.
Has the hunt for the big money taken a break?
Here it is worth pointing out that the decline in reserves proved that Bitcoin is in a bull market. However, the metric also suggested that Bitcoin may be 50% away from its potential market top this cycle.
At the time of writing, BTC was valued at $67,937, with the crypto having registered a notable decline from its March ATH. The falling combination of reserves and prices indicates that Bitcoin may be looking for liquidity.
Source: CryptoQuant
In trading, liquidity chasing occurs when market participants look for low liquidity as prices move within a short range. AMBCrypto’s assessment of the market showed Bitcoin trading between $64,000 and $68,000.
This price inefficiency is a sign that BTC may not make a significant upward move until the end of the second quarter (Q2). As such, the bull run could pause and begin its next leg in the third quarter, lasting until the end of the fourth quarter of this year.
XBTManager, an analyst from CryptoQuant, also shared a similar thought. In his analysis he said explained,
“Bitco is gathering strength for the next surge. When it gathers enough strength, a sharp rise seems to be waiting for us. It seems likely that increases like those seen in the third and fourth quarters will continue.”
This view also aligned with the crypto fear and greed index. This index shows whether the cryptocurrency is fairly priced, overpriced, or undervalued based on market sentiment.
The price of Bitcoin could double
At the time of writing, the metric had a value of 60 – a sign that market greed was not extreme. Therefore, Bitcoin seemed reasonably priced on the charts. However, this also indicates that significant upside may still be possible in the medium to long term.
To support this bullish price prediction, AMBCrypto checked the Cycle change detector. This measure shows whether Bitcoin has entered a bull or bear phase.
This measure also uses the correlation between price and supply in profits. If you look at the chart below, a light blue line would appear when Bitcoin reaches its peak price.
Source: Glaassnode
However, if the line is light red, it means that the price is close to the bottom. At the time of writing, Bitcoin had passed the bottom.
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However, no blue light (upper detector) was visible yet. Based on the signals mentioned above, the price of BTC could reach $101,500 between the third and fourth quarters of 2024.