- If Bitcoin falls below its STH Realized Price, the price could capitulate to $53,000.
- Holding the support at $69,178 could take BTC to $92,237.
Bitcoin [BTC] will end the month with a negative price return for the first time since the beginning of the year. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the price of Bitcoin at the time of writing was $63,431. On average, this represents a decline of 9.71% over the past 30 days.
As May approaches, there are questions as to whether the currency would recover from this decline. While some analysts suggested a delay, others painted a bleak picture for BTC.
But rumors and personal opinions won’t do the job. That’s why AMBCrypto looked at some crucial metrics that could ruin or spoil the coin price next month.
Look after! Belief is not reality
The first on the list is the Reserve risk. offered by on-chain analytics platform Glassnode. This metric measures the confidence of long-term investors relative to the price.
If price is high and confidence is low, it means Bitcoin may not offer much reward risk. On the other hand, falling value and rising confidence suggest that the price might have a chance to rise.
Source: Glassnode
At the time of writing, the reserve risk was 0.002, indicating that holders were confident in the price of BTC. Moreover, since the price drop in the last 30 days could be a signal to start accumulating before the next rise.
Should accumulation increase, BTC could head towards $70,000, and this could put the bears in an unfavorable position. Another metric to look at is the realized price for the Short Term Holder (STH).
For context, the realized price is the average purchase price of BTC on-chain. If Bitcoin’s spot price falls below the STH Realized price, it could mean that the coin has reached a local top.
Source: Glassnode
Has the path to $92,237 begun?
If BTC’s value remains above this, a further uptrend could be in the works. At the time of writing, the price realized by STH was $59,586. Should Bitcoin fall below this level, the spot value could drop to $53,000.
However, we can also evaluate the price that Bitcoin must reach to avoid capitulation. This is why we conducted the assessment MVRV price bands. MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value.
The pricing model allows investors to estimate possible cycle tops and bottoms. At the time of writing, the MVRV price bands showed that a realized price of $69,178 could send the value to $92,237.
Source: Glassnode
But that prediction could hold true for the long term. In the short term, bulls should come to BTC’s rescue as selling pressure has been intense lately.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2024-2025
Should a rise in accumulation occur, a decline below $59,586 may not occur.
Instead, the value of the coin could rise above $69,000, and this could validate a rise above $73,000 before the end of May.