Bitcoins [BTC] price performance has remained under pressure, with the asset down about 32% from its all-time high of $126,000 and down 5.6% over the past year.
Selling pressure increased on October 10 and continued through the fourth quarter of 2025, while prices trended lower before settling into a range barrier between $85,000 and $90,000 on the chart.
The main question now is whether this downward trend will continue in the first quarter of 2026.
While broader market optimism remains muted, several internal and institutional signals suggest sentiment is approaching a turning point. AMBCrypto investigates the factors that shape this vision.
Long-term investors pause distribution
The outlook is starting to show the first signs of stabilization.
Long-term Bitcoin holders – defined as addresses with unused transaction outputs (UTXOs) older than six months – are starting to change their behavior.
This cohort, which had been distributing Bitcoin to the market since July, appears to have stopped selling.
CryptoQuant data shows that long-term holders went from selling 674,000 BTC worth $59.8 billion to purchasing 10,700 BTC in one day.
While this doesn’t confirm continued accumulation, it marks a notable change in positioning and suggests that long-term investors can now ease pressure on the sell side.
Source: CryptoQuant
Short-term and retail behavior support this view. Exchange Netflow data, which tracks Bitcoin inflows and outflows from centralized exchanges, shows that outflows exceeded inflows in December.
More than $4 billion has been invested in Bitcoin purchases to date, with $294 million worth of BTC withdrawn from exchanges in the week starting December 29.
Together, these moves point to a potential stabilization phase, even as Bitcoin continues to trade within a clearly defined range.
ETF flows indicate changing institutional sentiment
The activity of US-based investors remains an important barometer of broader market direction.
According to data from CoinGlass, US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded consistent outflows between December 17 and 29, with institutional investors pulling $1.12 billion from the market.
However, sentiment changed as $335 million in Bitcoin flowed back into ETFs, marking the third-largest daily inflow since October 21. This reversal suggests that institutional selling pressure may be easing.
Source: CoinGlass
At the retail level, sentiment has not yet followed the same trajectory.
The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on the American exchange Coinbase and the global exchange Binance, remains negative.
At the time of writing, the index was -0.09, indicating weaker demand from US private participants and continued caution despite improving institutional flows.
Digital asset treasury companies offer longer-term support
Digital asset treasuries could play an increasingly important role in balancing market sentiment.
Since their emergence, this group has amassed Bitcoin holdings worth $152.4 billion, which represents approximately 1.175 million BTC, according to CoinGecko.
Notably, these entities continued to accumulate even as Bitcoin prices fell.
Source: CryptoQuant
Strategy, which owns the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury worth $59.7 billion, acquired more than a third of its total BTC holdings in 2025 alone, spending around $22 billion.
If this pace of accumulation continues alongside improving market conditions, Bitcoin could see a stronger recovery phase.
For now, bearish pressure still dominates near-term sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index remains at 32, reflecting a fearful market environment.
A broader shift in sentiment, combined with alignment on supportive macro and regulatory conditions – such as improvements to the supplementary leverage ratio – could improve market liquidity and lay the foundation for continued upside in the first quarter.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is gradually taking shape as the new year approaches, with long-term holders slowing distribution.
- Digital asset treasuries are emerging as a potential stabilizing force, with regulatory clarity and policy alignment providing longer-term support.