- Bitcoin had risen 3% over the past seven days at the time of writing.
- Due to June’s lackluster action, Bitcoin ultimately recorded a negative return of almost 7%.
Bitcoin [BTC] traded promisingly above $63,000 over the weekend as bulls attempted to gain higher ground ahead of the monthly close.
While successfully defending the crucial psychological support level at $60,000, boosted by price increases on the last day of the month, the BTC/USD pair nevertheless printed red monthly and quarterly candles.
Source: TradingView
Here’s what’s ahead for the leading cryptocurrency:
Bitcoin price action
June’s lackluster action ultimately saw Bitcoin post a negative return of nearly 7% for the entire month and around 12% for the just-ended quarter.
The BTC/USD pair faces more price volatility in the second half of the year, following a weak performance last quarter, during which the pair booked two trips under $60,000.
Source: Coinglass
The fundamentals indicate that Bitcoin still exists ready for potential upside in Q3. Bitcoin’s price made a historic recovery in July, after a negative return in June, with an overall average return of 7.3% and a median return of 8.9%.
While historical data from Coinglass confirms Bitcoin’s recovery story in July after being subdued in June, some market participants aren’t entirely sold on a bullish setup.
Macroeconomic picture
Uncertainties remain in the macro picture as we enter the new month. This week, markets welcome mild catalysts in the form of US macroeconomic data releases, which could provide insight into central bankers’ views on inflation and interest rates.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak at a European Central Bank conference in Sintra, Portugal on Tuesday, followed by the release of minutes from the previous Fed meeting on Wednesday.
Stock markets will reopen on Friday and welcome the June US jobs report.
Signs of easing inflation so far have market commentators betting on a rate-cutting cycle by the US Federal Reserve sometime this year.
Markets in broad terms prediction two interest rates of 25 basis points each by the Fed before the end of the year according to CME’s FedWatch tool. These potential rate cuts by the Fed could lead to greater inflows of investors into alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies.
In his annual economic report However, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) warned on June 30 against premature easing of monetary policy.
The BIS advised at its annual general meeting,
“A premature easing could reignite inflationary pressures and force a costly policy reversal – all the more costly as credibility would be undermined. The risks of loosely anchored inflation expectations have not gone away as pressure points remain.”
Market participants will need to keep an eye on the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), scheduled for July 30-31, to get a better sense of the Fed’s policies.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2024-25
BTC/USD technical analysis
Bitcoin regained $63,000 during the July 1 trading session, reaching an intraday high of $63,700. However, from a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still showing weakness within the $58,500 to $72,000 range despite Monday’s price action.
Source: TradingView
A close below the 20-exponential moving average (EMA) around $63,650 could see the crypto slide back towards critical support at $60,000.