Can crypto overtake gold and stocks by 2026? THESE numbers say...

Contents

A gap that refuses to be closed The big players are not shocked The calendar is more important Final thoughts

Journalist

Posted: December 31, 2025

Although the crypto market looked eventful this year, in reality it was not. While stocks and metals rose, digital assets struggled to keep pace with their gains.

The underperformance doesn’t necessarily mean the market is broken. However, the following year may bring a rotation after all this waiting.

A gap that refuses to be closed

Since November, gold has risen by about 9% and the S&P 500 also made some gains. Bitcoins though [BTC] moved in the opposite direction, a decrease of about 20%!

The contrast is stark, considering that crypto was lagging at a time when risky assets were taking hold elsewhere.

Source: Santiment

But this isn’t about a sudden loss of faith in Bitcoin. Just the capital went somewhere else.

The demand for safety caused metals to benefit. Equities also benefited from selective optimism, while crypto remained stuck in a holding pattern.

The crypto market has been ignored despite all its activity, but could be a good starting point for 2026.

The big players are not shocked

While STHs oscillated, LTHs were have remained seated since July. There has been little distribution from this group, even as prices fell. They still have a lot of confidence in it.

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One possible reason is rotation. Garrett Jin, former CEO of BitForex, says capital may already be returning to crypto as the metals slow down.

“Capital is starting to flow into crypto,” he noted an X post. Traders tend to sell strength and re-enter weakness. If that’s the case, Bitcoin’s calm is certainly a front for positioning.

Perhaps LTHs are waiting for the cycle to turn rather than rushing for the exit.

The calendar is more important

However, the picture is not all equally clear. Bitcoin’s worst years (2014, 2018 and 2022) were all gap years, with huge declines and prolonged weaknesses. On that basis alone, 2026 could very well be another potential stress test.

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That is why the current design is interesting.

LTHs won’t sell, the capital won’t move, and the price still won’t move. If Bitcoin recovers, it will be because its structure changed first. If not, cycles may become more important in the coming months.