- ADA’s price could rise above $0.80 if we go by historical data
- Indications from OI and liquidations suggested an initial decline below $0.46
If the past determines the future, then it belongs to Cardano [ADA] The price could increase by 75% within a short time. AMBCrypto made this conclusion afterwards to research the ratio between market value and realized value (MVRV).
As of April 18, Cardano’s 30-day MVRV ratio was 22.04%. The last time the metric approached this point, the ADA rose from $0.45 to $0.72. This was again in January.
The floodgates may open soon
However, January was not the only time Cardano made such a move. Also in October 2023, the ADA rose from $0.24 to $0.43 after a similar trend appeared on the MVRV ratio.
Source: Santiment
In the last 30 days, the value of the cryptocurrency has fallen by 23.60%. However, in light of Bitcoin [BTC]’s halving, the price followed the direction of other altcoins and made a jump.
At the time of writing, ADA was valued at $0.46, thanks to a 3.41% increase over 24 hours. However, it is uncertain how Cardano would react after the completion of the halving.
Weeks after the third halving in 2020, the ADA rose to $0.08 after trading at $0.04 on the day of the event. If a similar scenario occurs, the token’s price could be between $0.80 and $0.92 before the end of June.
However, before the medium-term performance, the ADA could stagnate or fluctuate between $0.45 and $0.48. This is because of the indications represented by the volume.
At the time of writing, ADA’s volume was $542.97 million. While this marked an increase, it did not seem solid enough to keep Cardano in a continuous uptrend.
However, if volume rises above $1 billion while the price of ADA also rises, the value could rise to $0.50. On the other hand, declining volume could push ADA lower, and its value could fall back to $0.43.
It won’t be a straight road to the top
Another metric that AMBCrypto evaluated was Open Interest (OI). The OI decreases or increases based on the net position. If it rises, it means buyers are being more aggressive. On the other hand, decreasing OI suggests that salespeople are the aggressive sellers.
Source: Santiment
However, Cardano’s OI was not large enough to trigger a pump. Therefore, ADA’s price could swing sideways for several days before the predicted rally materializes.
Meanwhile, contracts worth $1.31 million have been signed liquidated in the last 24 hours. Of this total, $773 million consisted of long positions, while shorts represented $534 million.
Liquidation occurs when a trader’s position is forcibly closed due to high leverage or insufficient margin balance. It is important to note that liquidations can have an impact on price developments. From a trading perspective, large OI and short liquidations can push a crypto’s price into overhead resistance. But ADA had a higher long liquidation.
Read Cardanos [ADA] Price forecast 2024-2025
Combined with a small OI, this means that the price could dive into underlying support. Therefore, the potential 75% increase could happen much later after Cardano falls below $0.46.