Top analysts are divided on the path forward for the crypto market.
In a recent interview with CNBC, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee remained confident that the crypto market could see a relief rally.
Lee, who is also chairman of the world’s largest Ethereum treasury company BitMine Immersion, said everything was there to bring the crypto market to a low point.
“Tom deMark, BitMine’s crypto advisor, has been waiting for time and price to align, $77K for BTC and $2400 for ETH. So all the pieces are in place for crypto to bottom out now. As long as crypto fundamentals are good, a recovery should be in order.”
Source: X/Tom Lee
According to him, the decline in crypto was expected after the announcement and confirmation of the new Fed chairman.
But he added that the size of the crypto market sell-off was “more than expected,” noting that there was no “leverage” immediately following the Oct. 10 crisis. reducing leverage event.
Galaxy foresees an additional dip for BTC
BTC fell 11% last week, from $90,000 to $75,000. At the time of writing, the light bounced back to $78,000.
However, according to Galaxy’s head of research Alex Thorn, the crypto asset could post more losses due to “lack of near-term catalysts.”
In a recent one remark to customers, Thorn wrote:
“Onchain data, weakness at key price levels, macro uncertainty and a lack of near-term catalysts suggest BTC will trade lower towards the 200-week moving average in the coming weeks or months.”
Source: Galaxy Research
Currently, the 200-week moving average is around $50,000, and Thorn added that this level has been a key buying area in the past.
“If Bitcoin moves lower toward the 200-week moving average or realized price, these levels should provide strong entry points for long-term investors, as they have in the past.”
Interestingly, some whales with over 1000 BTC already jumped at discounted prices to add positions, Bitfinex noted.
Source: Glassnode/Bitfinex
Will $70,000 hold up?
For his part, Aurelie Barthere, chief research analyst at Nansen, a crypto analytics platform, also shared a bearish view similar to that of Thorn. He mentioned possible changes if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as the new Fed chairman.
In an email statement, Barthere told AMBCrypto:
“Changing the Fed’s operating regime and shrinking its balance sheet won’t be easy (the committee needs convincing), but I think markets are starting to price in a low probability of a QT (quantitative tightening) resumption. This is bearish crypto.”
Meanwhile, the 2021 cycle also rhymed with the current price action, with fractals (blue line) suggesting BTC could fall to $70,000. This was the high of the last cycle, and previous bear markets tend to stabilize around previous market cycle tops.
Source: BTC’s 2021 vs. 2025 Pattern, TradingView
Final thoughts
- Fundstrat’s Lee said bottoming in the crypto market could be likely as “all the circumstances” aligned.
- Still, macroeconomic headwinds and the close similarity between the 2021 pattern and current price action call for extra caution.