As crypto markets look beyond short-term volatility, Dragonfly Capital shifts its focus to 2026. In a broad perspective, the company’s leadership highlights Bitcoin’s evolving market structure, increasing competition from Big Tech wallets, and a more selective future for decentralized finance. The message is clear: the next phase of crypto growth will reward fundamentals over hype.
Bitcoin’s Price Outlook and a Changing Market Structure
Bitcoin remains central to Dragonfly’s 2026 thesis, but not for the reasons we’ve seen in previous cycles. Qureshi believes the asset could trade above $150,000 within the next two years, but he doesn’t expect it to dominate the market in the same way as before.
It’s that time again: as 2025 comes to a close, it’s time to drop the 2026 predictions.
I think 2026 will surprise, both positively and negatively. Organized by category:
Macro / chains
* $BTC is >$150,000 by the end of the year, but BTC’s dominance will decline in 2026.
*Despite the…— Haseeb ＞|＜ (@hosseeb) December 29, 2025
Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, scarce asset has strengthened amid macro uncertainty, especially as regulatory clarity improves in major jurisdictions. Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization may decline. That shift would not be a signal of weakness. Instead, the shift points to growth in other parts of the ecosystem. Investments are shifting towards stablecoins, settlement rails and blockchain-based financial infrastructure rather than new base layer bets.
More information: Stablecoin – A complete usage guide
Stablecoins play a central role in this evolution. According to Dragonfly’s analysis, supply could grow significantly by 2026 as banks, fintech companies and cross-border payment providers adopt blockchain rails. Even modest growth rates would translate into hundreds of billions of dollars of on-chain liquidity.
Asked about privacy as an important issue, Qureshi demurred. “I think privacy will be a laggard,” he wrote. “Zcash will probably do well because people want to believe it, and there will be some acceptance of private transactions on Arc, Tempo, etc.” Still, he returned to his overarching framework: “I predict that in 2026, most people will continue to do things the way they have been doing them.”
At the time of writing, the total crypto market capitalization was $3.07 trillion.
Big Tech Wallets and the Next Phase of Business Adoption
One of Qureshi’s most followed views is about the role of Big Tech in the next phase of crypto. He expects at least one major tech company to launch or acquire a crypto wallet by 2026, focusing on payments, custody or digital identity rather than trading.
For platforms with a global user base, wallets offer flexibility without exposure. They can enable cross-border payments, identity verification, loyalty programs or programmable transactions, all without issuing a token or using a public blockchain.
That distinction is crucial. Previous attempts by major tech companies to roll out their own digital currencies often stalled under regulatory pressure. However, crypto wallets face fewer hurdles. They fit better within existing financial rules and usually receive much less criticism from supervisors.
Learn More: An Introduction to Hardware Wallet by NFTPlazas
Blockchain adoption in businesses is also advancing, but largely out of public focus. Many companies are experimenting with permissioned or hybrid systems that connect to public blockchains for settlement or verification. Advances in rollups and modular architectures have reduced integration costs.
Why fintech-backed blockchains are reaching a ceiling
Despite increasing corporate interest in blockchain, new Layer 1 networks launched by fintech companies face structural limitations. The problem isn’t performance or technology. It’s positioning.
Blockchains branded or controlled by a single company struggle to present themselves as neutral infrastructure. Developers are often reluctant to build networks where governance, incentives, or strategic direction remain under the control of a single corporate sponsor.
When neutrality is questioned, ecosystems may struggle to attract outside participation. Without strong composability or sustained third-party demand, fintech-backed blockchains risk becoming inward-looking platforms, limited to a limited number of predefined use cases rather than an open financial infrastructure. Growth can be stable, but is usually limited.
A more disciplined crypto market
Dragonfly’s 2026 outlook points to a market that looks increasingly familiar to the traditional financial sector. Speculation still exists, but it no longer defines the entire cycle. Infrastructure, compliance and capital efficiency are more important now.
| Theme | Expected direction |
| Bitcoin price | Above $150,000, driven by institutions |
| Bitcoin dominance | Gradual decline as the ecosystem expands |
| Stablecoin offering | Strong growth in payments and banking |
| Major technical entry | Wallets and infrastructure, not new tokens |
| New Fintech L1s | Limited adoption versus established chains |
| Enterprise blockchain | Hybrid and authorized models are expanding |
Key Themes Shaping Crypto in 2026
Bitcoin remains central, although its role has evolved. It anchors value while other sectors absorb growth. Big Tech is coming in quietly, through wallets and tools rather than bold currency introductions. New blockchains face higher barriers, while established networks strengthen their position.