Crypto expert Peter Brandt has boldly claimed that the Bitcoin top for this market cycle may already be in place. He drew this conclusion based on his ‘exponential decay’ theorem, which he noted could actually be good for the economy. Bitcoin ecosystem.
Why the price of Bitcoin has reached its peak
Brandt explained that historical data suggests that the price of Bitcoin has reached its peak. He further alluded to “exponential decay,” which he noted could be used to describe Bitcoin. Brandt’s exponential decay thesis is based on the fact that Bitcoin’s percentage gain has declined significantly with each successive bull cycle.
For context, BitcoinAccording to the crypto expert, the price recorded an increase of 122x from the lowest market level to the highest market level between 2015 and 2017. However, that was only 21.3% of Bitcoin’s price gain in the previous cycle (between 2011 and 2013).
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Brandt further noted that the same thing happened between 2018 and 2021. Despite a 22x increase from the market’s lowest level to the market’s highest level, Bitcoin only registered 18% of the price increase it saw in the previous cycle. After formulating this premise, the crypto expert concluded that this market cycle should be no different Bitcoin is likely to see around 20% of the previous cycle’s gains.
He took $15,473 as the market low for this cycle and noted that 20% of the previous cycle’s gains would mean the market high for this cycle should be $72,723, a price level that Bitcoin had already reached on its way to a high. new all-time record (ATH) of $73,750.
Meanwhile, the crypto expert acknowledged that Bitcoin historically records the most price gains after the Bitcoin halving, which took place recently. However, he added that the crypto community is dealing with the fact of exponential decay, leading him to believe there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already surpassed this cycle.”
Why Exponential Decay Could Be Bullish for Bitcoin
Brandt said Bitcoin would likely fall to the mid $30,000 or the low point of 2021 if it has indeed peaked. However, he added that this decline could be “the most optimistic thing that could happen in the long term.”
Related reading: Brace for Price Impact: Dogecoin Whales Move Massive 456 Million DOGE to Exchanges
From a “classic chart point of view,” the crypto expert hinted that Bitcoin was still ready large parabolic movements to the positive side, even if that is not happening now.
Source: X
He also shared an example of what Bitcoin’s chart could look like if this move happens with the crypto token which exceeds $100,000. Brandt also pointed to Gold’s chart from August 2020 to March 2024 as an example of what Bitcoin’s price action could look like soon enough. Interestingly enough, he recently predicted that Bitcoin will soon be “King of Gold”.
BTC price drops below $63,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Forkast News, chart from Tradingview.com
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