With anticipation surrounding Bitcoin ETFs from giants like BlackRock, Fidelity and Invesco, and an expected halving in April 2024, predictions for Bitcoin’s price next year show a significant range. From JPMorgan to Standard Chartered Bank, here are the most notable estimates for 2024:
Pantera Capital: $150,000
In their August ‘Blockchain Letter’, Pantera Capital, led by Dan Morehead, predicts a possible rise to $147,843 after the 2024 halving. Using the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio, they believe the pricing model suggests that the Bitcoin’s valuation relative to its scarcity will become clearer.
Pantera Capital specifically stated: “The 2020 halving reduced the supply of new bitcoins by 43% compared to the previous halving. It had a 23% greater impact on the price.” Using history as a reference, this could indicate an increase from $35,000 before the halving to $148,000 after. However, not all Bitcoin proponents are on board as they have witnessed failed predictions based on this model in the recent past.
Standard Chartered Bank: $120,000
In a recent July research report, Standard Chartered Bank offered a bullish view on Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. The British multinational bank now expects Bitcoin’s value to rise to $50,000 by the end of the current year, with the potential to rise to $120,000 by the end of 2024. This revised forecast from Standard Chartered marks an increase from their previous forecast from April where they predicted a top of $100,000 for Bitcoin.
The upward revision of the bank’s forecasts is supported by several driving factors. One of the main reasons cited for the potential price escalation is the ongoing crisis in the banking sector. Furthermore, the report sheds light on the rising profitability for Bitcoin miners as a crucial factor influencing the price trajectory. Geoff Kendrick, head of currency and digital assets research, highlights the instrumental role of miners. He notes: “The rationale here is that miners, in addition to maintaining the Bitcoin ledger, play a key role in determining the net supply of newly mined BTC.”
JPMorgan: $45,000 per Bitcoin
JPMorgan, one of the world’s largest investment banks, expects more moderate growth for Bitcoin and predicts a rise to $45,000. This forecast is influenced by rising gold prices. Historically, Bitcoin and gold have shown a correlation in their price movements, and with the gold price recently crossing the $2,000 per ounce mark, this has reinforced JPMorgan’s conservative view on Bitcoin.
In a detailed May note, JPMorgan strategists explained: “With gold prices rising above $2,000, the value of gold held outside central banks for investment purposes is approximately [$3 trillion]. Consequently, this suggests a Bitcoin price of $45,000, based on the premise that BTC will achieve a status similar to that of gold among retail investors.”
Matrixport: $125,000 by end of 2024
In July, Matrixport, a leading crypto services provider, predicted that the price of Bitcoin could rise as high as $125,000 by the end of 2024. This optimistic outlook was based on historical price patterns and a key signal: Bitcoin’s recent mid-year breakout of $31,000. July, the highest level in more than a year. Historically, such milestones have signaled the end of bear markets and the beginning of robust bull markets.
Comparing these patterns to historical data from 2015, 2019 and 2020, Matrixport estimates potential profits of up to 123% within twelve months and 310% within eighteen months. This translates to potential Bitcoin prices of $65,539 and $125,731 within those respective time frames.
Tim Draper: $250,000
Tim Draper, a prominent venture capitalist, has a very bullish view on Bitcoin. Although his previous prediction that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by June 2023 did not come true, he remains optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s long-term potential. In a July interview on Bloomberg TV, Draper attributed recent regulatory actions in the United States, such as those against Coinbase and Binance, to BTC’s short-term downward trend.
Despite these challenges, Draper continues to believe in Bitcoin’s transformative power and expects Bitcoin’s value to potentially reach $250,000, albeit now possibly in 2024 or 2025. His confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to revolutionize the financial world and sustain its long-term value remains steadfast.
Berenberg: $56,630 at Bitcoin halving
German investment bank Berenberg revised its forecast in July, pointing towards $56,630 in April 2024. This upward adjustment was supported by improved market sentiment attributed to the anticipation of the Bitcoin halving expected in April 2024 and growing interest of prominent institutional players.
Berenberg’s team of analysts, led by the insightful Mark Palmer, emphasizes their expectation of significant Bitcoin appreciation in the coming months. This projection is driven by two key factors: the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving and growing enthusiasm from major institutions.
To underline their confidence in the market, Berenberg also confirmed his buy recommendation for the Microstrategy share. The bank revised its price target for Microstrategy to $510 from $430, driven by a higher valuation of the company’s BTC holdings and an improved outlook for its software business.
Blockware solutions: $400,000
Blockware intelligence, in one analysis from August, titled “2024 Halving Analysis: Understanding Market Cycles and Opportunities Created by the Halving,” addressed the intriguing possibility of Bitcoin’s price reaching $400,000 during the next halving period, expected in 2024/25.
A central factor identified in the research is the role of the halving in shaping Bitcoin market cycles. The report claims that miners, who are responsible for a significant portion of the selling pressure, receive newly minted BTC, much of which they need to sell to cover operational costs. However, the halving events serve to weed out inefficient miners, leading to reduced selling pressure.
With supply decreasing due to halvings, the study highlights that demand is becoming the key determinant of BTC’s market price. Historical data shows that increases in demand usually follow halvings. Market participants, equipped with an understanding of the supply-side dynamics introduced by halvings, prepare to deploy capital at the first signs of upward momentum, potentially leading to a substantial price increase. This increase in demand is especially reflected in the current on-chain data, which confirms the positive sentiment surrounding halving events.
In addition to these notable predictions, there are a plethora of other price predictions for BTC, ranging from Cathie Wood’s (ARK Invest) ambitious $1 million projection to Mike Novogratz’s (Galaxy Digital) $500,000, Tom Lee’s (Fundstrat Global) $180,000 , Robert Kiyosaki’s (Rich Dad Company) $100,000, Adam Back’s $100,000, and Arthur Hayes’ $70,000 prediction, highlighting the differing perspectives on Bitcoin’s future value.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $26,286.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com