According to market research agency Santiment Bitcoin lags behind both gold and the S&P500 after a sharp decline in November. Gold is up 9% since early November, the S&P 500 is up 1% and Bitcoin is down about 20%, trading around $88,000 as of Wednesday. Based on reports, this gap has caused crypto to become quieter, while other markets have seen a modest recovery.
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Signals of whale accumulation
Santiment’s data points to a split in behavior among holders. Small wallets were busy buying in the second half of 2025, while large wallets remained largely stable and sold after rising to an all-time high in October.
Large investors are often treated as market movers, so their cautious stance has kept prices under pressure. Historically, a shift where large investors start buying as retail declines has marked real trend shifts, but that condition is not yet entirely clear.
📊 The correlation between Bitcoin & crypto still lags behind other major sectors. Since the beginning of November, price performance has been:
🥇 Gold: +9%
🏦S&P500: +1%
🪙 Bitcoin: -20%🤞 Heading into 2026, there remains an opportunity for crypto to “catch up.” pic.twitter.com/FW8JaQboTV
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 30, 2025
On-Chain data mixed
Reports indicate some signs of stabilization. Long-term Bitcoin holders reduced their holdings from 14.8 million coins in mid-July to 14.3 million in December, then halted further sales. Active Bitcoin addresses are up 5.51% in the last 24 hours, but transactions are down almost 30% over the same period.
This mismatch suggests that more people are watching the market, while fewer are betting money. The raw numbers show interest, but no clear shift back to broad trading activity.
Voices from the market weigh in
Garrett Jin, who once ran the BitForex exchange, said traders are already reallocating capital, arguing that money moves from one market to another when opportunities arise. Capital is the same and as always, it is wise to sell high and buy low, Jin wrote, according to posts on social channels.
Another analyst, CyrilXBT, described the current situation as late-cycle positioning ahead of a possible rotation: when liquidity turns, gold could cool off, Bitcoin could take the lead and other tokens could follow.
Bitcoin currently still looks the same as the 2016-2017 period, just before a parabolic move.
These two setups keep flashing in our minds because of the extreme similarities and bullish signals even persist and flash here.$BTClooks ready to go definitely?… pic.twitter.com/H1hInYwix8
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) December 30, 2025
Price calls and technical views
Technical commentators remain divided. Javon Marks has pointed out parabolic patterns in the Bitcoin chart that mirror the 2016-2017 build-up and continues to predict a rally towards $125,000.
Based on CoinCodex data, a more modest move is expected first: the platform predicts that BTC could reach $91,500 by January 30, 2026, an increase of 3.68% from current levels.
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CoinCodex calls the sentiment bearish and the Fear & Greed Index is at 23 (Extreme Fear). The site also notes that Bitcoin had 15/30 green days and 2.11% volatility over the last 30 days, with the last update on December 31, 2025.
Short-term traders should focus on whether large portfolios will resume buying volume, and whether trades will pick up alongside rising active addresses. If whales start rallying again while long-term holders stop reducing their positions, that combination would send a stronger signal than either metric alone.
Meanwhile, reports point to stabilization rather than a confirmed reversal, leaving room for a catch-up in 2026 if liquidity and sentiment turn around.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView