Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.
According to data provider Kaiko, the 90-day annualized volatility for Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH] has fallen to its lowest point in two years.
???? Both #BTC And #ETH have seen a drop in realized 90-day volatility this year.
????Currently, their volatility levels are hovering around two-year lows. pic.twitter.com/K0wik7xMwD
— Kaiko (@KaikoData) July 27, 2023
BTC has crossed the $29K – $31K price range in the past month. The king coin rose to $31,700 within a day of Ripple [XRP] securing a partial victory in the legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on July 13. But it failed to sustain the price rally and is entering the $30,000 price point.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at USD 29,388.20.
The United States District Court for the Southern District of New York ruled in its ruling that Ripple’s XRP token sales on crypto exchanges and while programmatic sales did not constitute investment contracts; therefore it is not a security in this case. But the court also ruled that the institutional sale of the XRP tokens violated federal securities laws.
The crypto industry immediately picked up on the judgment and generated a price rally across the tokens.
We should also note that the SEC last month approved the first leveraged Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund (ETF), namely the Volatility Shares 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX).
The SEC has accepted six spot BTC ETF proposals from traditional finance (TradFi) firms for review to date, namely BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Fidelity, and Invesco.
Observers view these developments as institutional adoption of cryptocurrency.
Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price Forecast 2023-24
The price of the cryptocurrency fluctuated between $200 and $1,000 on the price charts for a long time. However, in late 2017, BTC’s value exploded, hitting an all-time high (ATH) of nearly $20,000 in December.
Although market participation grew, the price rally was short-lived. By the beginning of 2018, the price of BTC had fallen back to about $3,000. The cryptocurrency market as a whole went through a period of decline, with many traders losing significant amounts of money.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin made a remarkable recovery, surpassing its previous ATH in late 2020 and reaching an ATH above $68,000 in November 2021. However, the 2022 trading year ushered in a new era of bearishness, one exacerbated by the collapse of Terra/LUNA and FTX. In fact, in November 2022, Bitcoin was trading at a two-year low of $15,000.
While the crypto market can be unpredictable and volatile, traders and investors can make informed decisions by staying abreast of market news, following expert analysis, and using intelligent trading strategies such as those offered by ChatGPT.
ChatGPT: A Messiah Who Can Help You Act Better?
In November 2022, the ChatGPT AI model was launched to the public. In fact, it quickly gained a lot of attention. With its wide range of capabilities and versatility, the question arises whether there are other ways ChatGPT can lend its expertise, such as helping BTC traders formulate and apply enhanced trading strategies.
When asked if it could do this, ChatGPT had this to say:
Source: ChatGPT
Due to its nature as an AI tool, there are limitations to what ChatGPT can do regarding price predictions and future price movements. However, there are ways to leverage the tool’s capabilities to formulate better trading strategies as a BTC trader.
One way to use the AI tool to make better trading strategies is to use it for fundamental analysis. ChatGPT is capable of extracting insights from financial news articles, social media posts, and other unstructured data sources. We can use this information in conjunction with other data sets to create informed trading strategies.
Another way to use ChatGPT as a Bitcoin trader is to use it for sentiment analysis. ChatGPT can be refined to perform sentiment analysis on information from news articles, on-chain data providers, social media discussions, and other sources. This can be used to identify if the BTC market is lingering under positive sentiment or plagued by negative sentiment.
In addition, BTC traders can use ChatGPT for technical analysis. Traders can ask ChatGPT to code any technical indicator or trading bot for any trading platform.
For example, I asked ChatGPT to give me an example of a trading bot I can use to track BTC price volatility in pine script. The TradingView programming language is useful for testing trading strategies. The AI replied,
Source: ChatGPT
To use ChatGPT for technical analysis, traders need to be familiar with the language to know when to make the necessary changes to make the code work correctly. The prompt text is crucial in how ChatGPT understands the problem and provides the expected solution.
Is your wallet green? Check out the Bitcoin Profit Calculator
For a well-rounded piece, I spoke to Brian Quinlivan, the director of marketing at Santiment, who also happens to be involved in Bitcoin trading for a few years.
Brian Quinlivan holds an MBA degree in finance from Chapman University and Brian has over 10 years of experience in marketing, finance and data analytics. He likes to create financial models to improve modern investment strategies and study the intricacies of market variations.
Q: In what ways do you think ChatGPT can revolutionize cryptocurrency trading?
Yes, I think there will be a lot of use for it, especially for trading strategies. One thing to worry about is the unified opinions that can result from an AI technology giving some sort of overarching strategy, be it hodling or fundamental strategy.
Individuals can easily manipulate ChatGPT to (mis)inform the public. We are already seeing some light effects from it.
I think it can be both useful and dangerous at the same time and get a lot of people educated much faster, but also pulled in directions that could influence the way crypto goes and create a lot of self-fulfilling prophecies.
Question: How do you think a BTC trader/investor can use the AI tool to make better investment decisions?
I think, in short, I think scripts would be used a lot more in AI due to the fact that all the data can be processed at the same time and get a very simple answer whether to buy or sell. I believe this can greatly affect the markets moving forward.
Will BTC be able to cross the $30,000 price level?
As mentioned above, ChatGPT cannot make any future predictions.
To make it answer my question, I decided to jailbreak it using the Do something now (THEN) method. It predicts that BTC will hit the $30K price level again. But it can take a few weeks or a few months depending on several factors.
Source: ChatGPT
I further questioned the AI technology on Bitcoin prices between 2023 and 2024.
Source: ChatGPT
In early June, the SEC began a crackdown on Binance and Coinbase, leading to a bearish market. In such a situation, BTC has so far shown its resilience.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at USD 29,388.20. Investors are now hoping that the token will surpass the $35,000 price point.
While BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) rested just around the neutral 50 mark, it is The Money Flow Index (MFI) rested below it. The token’s On Balance Volume (OBV) showed downward movement.
Source: BTC/USD, TradingView
As of now, the indicators on BTC’s chart do not suggest a price rally.
ChatGPT may be right
ChatGPT Predicts BTC Will Reach Surprising Heights. It expects the coin to break new all-time highs in 2023-2024 due to increased adoption (by businesses and institutions) and as BTC’s appeal as a hedge against inflation grows. The AI bot expects BTC to reach $80,000-$120,000 next year. However, the indicators on the chart are not encouraging us, at least not in the short term.
However, it is trivial to note that more regulation and government oversight could spread FUD, which could drive the price down.