By Matteo Greco, Research Analyst at the Listed Digital Assets and Fintech Investment Sector Fineqia International
Bitcoin (BTC) ended the week at around $68,400, showing a slight decline of 0.8% from the previous week’s closing value of around $69,000. Throughout the week, BTC showed significant volatility, with a price range of 13.4%. The week started with robust momentum as BTC rose to $72,000 on Monday. The price then hit a new all-time high of nearly $73,800 on Thursday, following highs above $73,000 on both Wednesday and Thursday.
On the same Thursday, BTC saw a sharp decline to $68,000 before recovering to close around $71,400. Selling pressure continued on Friday and Saturday, causing BTC to trade at a low of $64,700 and close around $65,300 on Saturday. However, positive momentum returned on Sunday, nearly erasing the weekly loss and closing around $68,400.
Despite the volatility and fluctuating prices, the previous week showed continued strong momentum for BTC Spot ETFs, with net inflows on all trading days. Weekly net inflows surpassed $2.5 billion, with net inflows exceeding $1 billion on Tuesday alone. Cumulative net inflows since inception now stand at approximately $12.2 billion.
Trading volume for BTC Spot ETFs also trended upward, with total trading volume since inception reaching $141.7 billion, including nearly $28 billion traded last week. This translated into a daily trading volume of over $5.5 billion in the previous week, contributing to a higher average daily volume since inception, which currently stands at approximately $3.15 billion.
These figures underline the continued momentum of investment from the traditional financial sector into the digital asset space. Despite BTC’s price stability last week, demand is mainly coming from ETFs, while native digital asset investors are more active on the sell side.
This trend is clearly visible in the decline of BTC in the hands of long-term holders, referring to BTC remaining immobile for at least 155 days. At the beginning of 2024, this supply amounted to almost 16.3 million BTC, gradually decreasing to around 15.1 million BTC as now. This shift reflects traditional investors driving buying activity through ETFs, while investors in native digital assets, which accumulated during the downtrend in 2022 and 2023, are now taking profits at a higher pace, reducing the supply of long-term holders .
Such behavior is characteristic of early bull phases, in which long-term holders distribute assets to new investors. If the current market remains in an uptrend, if we analyze the past cycles, this pattern could continue until the supply of long-term holders matches the demand of new investors, which usually coincides with the peak of the cycle and the start of a downturn trend phase.
Notably, the BTC halving is about a month away, historically preceding cycle peaks between 6 and 12 months later. If historical patterns repeat, the peak of the current cycle could occur in late 2024 or the first half of 2025.