Hopes for an altcoin season in 2026 are starting to take shape, with investors looking beyond Bitcoin.
That said, it may be too early to call it. Although expectations are rising, the conditions necessary for a full-blown altcoin rally are not yet clearly in place.
Alt season in sight?
The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.6%, the highest figure in almost 40 months. This pushed U.S. manufacturing back into expansion territory.
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Previous altcoin rallies have done that tended to follow periods when ISM moved decisively higher. In both 2017 and 2021, altseasons only took shape after PMI values rose above 55.
Although current levels remain below that threshold, it appears that a potential turning point is underway.
But that’s not all…
Ethereum [ETH] – known as a harbinger of the altseason – has closed in the red in twelve of the past fifteen months with an extended period of weakness.
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The monthly return chart makes this slowdown clear and shows uneven gains, with frequent pullbacks in 2024 and early 2026. Even during brief comebacks, follow-through has been limited.
This is important. Persistent altseasons almost always followed a clear and consistent uptrend in Ethereum.
Altcoin boards look weak
Source: CoinGlass
CoinGlass’s Altcoin Season Index stood at 39 at the time of writing, below the level that usually signals a rotation away from Bitcoin [BTC]. Despite growing macro optimism, capital has yet to flow into altcoins on a larger scale.
Source: TradingView
At the same time, BTC.D was up almost 60% on the daily chart.
Altseasons typically started with a marked decline in BTC dominance, with investors moving down the risk curve. For the time being, that shift has not yet taken place.
While expectations for the offseason are starting to rise, overall they may be very premature. Only time will tell.
Final thoughts
- The first macro signals are improving, but the market lacks a trigger for a real altseason.
- With an altcoin seasonal index of 39, the capital is still firmly in Bitcoin.