PlanB, a popular name within the Bitcoin community, has shared the latest paper on X, which caused a wave of excitement and speculation. This discourse mainly highlights BTC’s potential journey through successive halving cycles.
Deeply rooted in the S2F model, PlanB’s analysis presents a story for Bitcoin’s future. This model examines the correlation between an asset’s existing reserves (stock) and annual production (flow) and lays the foundation for PlanB’s bold predictions.
Navigating Predictions: A Community Aweigh
According to the model, the upcoming halving cycle between 2020 and 2024 is expected to push Bitcoin’s price to around $50,000. But the real spectacle unfolds in subsequent cycles, with projections paving the way for Bitcoin to rise to $500,000 in the 2024-2028 cycle, eventually reaching a monumental $5 million in the 2028-2032 cycle.
Stock-to-Flow Halving Cycle 2020-2024: ~$50,000
Stock-to-Flow halving cycle 2024-2028: ~$500,000
Stock-to-Flow halving cycle 2028-2032: ~$5 million
Yes, S2F = exponential growth, and it will continue IMO. pic.twitter.com/rH1KmIyKSl— PlanB (@100 trillionUSD) March 18, 2024
PlanB’s predictions have sparked interest and discussion among the crypto community. Many are curious whether Bitcoin will experience the predicted substantial growth.
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PlanB acknowledged this caution, pointing out that its forecasts are based on three previous halving events and the significant period before the halving, suggesting that while the Stock-to-Flow model can drive the overall trend, its accuracy comes with significant margin of error. .
For example, while the 2020-2024 period was expected to average $55,000, the actual figure was around $33,000.
Where. Only 3 halvings (2012, 2016 and 2020) plus the crucial period before the halving (where BTC S2F grew from under 1 to ~4). And of course, S2F is only for general direction, and with a wide margin of error (e.g. the 2020-2024 forecast was 55k, but actually ~33k).
— PlanB (@100 trillionUSD) March 18, 2024
Additionally, another user in the conversation, known as Phoenix from Crypto, noticed that while PlanB’s projection may seem “overly optimistic,” the actual outcome remains to be seen, highlighting the need for patience.
This user highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s future, especially given the potential impact of ETFs and widespread adoption, indicating an open-minded but vigilant approach to market developments.
Bitcoin latest price action
Bitcoin is undergoing a notable decline and is down 7.5% over the past week. This downward trajectory has continued over the past 24 hours, with the cryptocurrency falling another 1.5%. Despite these setbacks, Bitcoin’s trading price remains $67,167 at the time of writing.
Skew, a reputable trader, has provided a technical analysis showing that: critical support range for Bitcoin investors between $60,000 and $67,000.
This range is seen as a potential pivot for the market’s direction, while also noting substantial selling activity on leading platforms such as Coinbase and Binance.
$BTC Spot Market Data Thread, in collaboration @_WOO_X $BTC Binance place
Weekend spot buyer hereSpot Delivery ($72K – $74K)
Spot Question ($60K)Interestingly enough, the last bounce where selling also resulted in a pile of limit bids being quoted lower.
~Keep an eye on those bids… pic.twitter.com/3PKHyddNlv— Skew Δ (@52kskew) March 17, 2024
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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