- Pre-halving events and ETFs fuel speculation about Bitcoin’s price.
- Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente analyze Bitcoin’s price drivers and future prospects
Well well! We are just a step, a hop and a skip away from Bitcoin’s [BTC] Halving in 2024. But the unusual nature of the pre-halving and BTC’s price action brings us to a question: will the fourth halving follow a different course?
Execs analysis of Bitcoin
In a recent stream on the “Unleashed” podcast, Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, and Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research shed light on the reason behind the leading cryptocurrency’s atypical moves.
We highlight the significant impact of Bitcoin ETFs, resulting in record-breaking sales and fiat inflows into the crypto ecosystem, driving prices higher. Hayes noted:
“Obviously every cycle is different… the main story of this cycle is sort of the addition of a Bitcoin derivative that institutional investors can invest in globally and so we’re really tied to those flows in terms of how the price action will culminate. .”
This outlines the complexity of factors influencing Bitcoin’s price, including Bitcoin’s halving, macro-liquidity cycles, behavioral dynamics, and the impact of passive flows resulting from the adoption of spot ETFs.
Additionally, Clemente sheds light on the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs on decentralization and price volatility:
“I don’t think the decentralization thing will be a big concern for me in the near future. I do think that volatility will naturally decrease each time as Bitcoin grows in size, becomes more liquid, gains more volume, etc.”
What’s next for the King Coin?
Naturally, the speakers also underlined the underlying economic tensions and factors influencing institutional investors to allocate money to Bitcoin.
They also delved into the story of the destruction of the government bond market, the role of central banks in printing money and the demographic shift towards digital investors.
Despite these setbacks, Clemente believes Bitcoin will steadily rise, similar to the behavior of traditional indices. He said,
“I suspect that Bitcoin will probably be the fastest horse in the coming years and we are going to hedge against that.”
On the contrary, Hayes depicted an extended crypto market cycle with higher potential gains, expecting a significant 85% to 90% drop in BTC.
So will the upcoming halving, combined with market uncertainty and adherence to traditional cycles, continue to keep us on edge?