Bitcoin’s price recovery in January was marked by strong institutional inflows. During the first two trading days in 2026, US spot ETF inflows reached $1.2 billion.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the renewed demand translated to $150 billion annually, calling the inflows “lionish.” He added,
“I told you if they can bring in $22 billion when it rains, imagine the sun shining.”
Source: Bloomberg
On the dates indicated, January 2 and 5, the ETFs attracted total daily net inflows of $471 million and $697 million, respectively.
However, on January 6, the ETFs saw net outflows of $243 million. This coincided with the Bitcoin price stalling at $94K after the rebound at the beginning of the year. But will ETF inflows become consistent and trigger a rally in BTC?
Will inflows lift BTC higher?
It’s worth pointing out that analysts have pinpointed ETF outflows in late 2025 as linked to hedge fund unwinds. Especially those who were aggressively pursuing the basic trade.
One of the telltale signs was the leverage flush on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), when the return on basic trading was halved from +10% to 5%.
According to analyst James Van StratenHowever, the early 2026 inflows did not show a spike in CME’s Open Interest (OI), indicating long-term conviction rather than leverage and zero-sum basis trading by hedge funds.
“BTC price continues to reach higher highs without OI rebuilding, indicating that exposure is unhedged and flows are directionally long and not arbitrage driven.”
It was true that CME’s OI was still down about $10 billion, down from a high of $19 billion to $20 billion in 2025.
Source: Velo
In other words, if ETF inflows become consistent, without a huge spike in leveraged bets via the CME, a constructive recovery above the $94,000 resistance could be possible.
Broader BTC demand remains weak
Yet ETFs are only one side of BTC demand dynamics. There are others, such as retail companies, BTC treasury companies and other sophisticated individual investors. They collectively influence and influence the BTC price in addition to market sentiment.
Despite renewed institutional inflows, overall demand for BTC remained negative, according to CryptoQuant.
Source: CryptoQuant
A stronger, more sustainable BTC recovery could be achievable if apparent demand turns positive again.
Meanwhile, BTC’s price was rejected at the $94K-$96K roadblock (red). This has been an obstacle for bulls since late November and remains the main hurdle to overcome before they can rise to the psychological level of $100,000.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
Final thoughts
- US spot ETFs saw inflows of $1.2 billion in the first two trading days of 2026, but also recorded net outflows of $243 million on the third day.
- Amid the fluctuations, BTC’s overall demand has remained negative, capping a stronger price recovery.