Current Bitcoin price behavior and its deviations from expected cyclical patterns remain a central theme of the analysis. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) recently shared new insights on X regarding Bitcoin’s potential peak during the ongoing bull run, which is progressing at an atypical pace compared to historical data.
When will Bitcoin peak this cycle?
In a detailed afterRekt Capital pointed out that as of mid-March 2024, Bitcoin had not only reached new all-time highs, but had also done so about 260 days earlier than traditional halving-induced cycles. This represented a significant acceleration. “When Bitcoin rose to new All Time Highs in mid-March 2024, Bitcoin accelerated its cycle by 260 days compared to traditional halving cycles,” said Rekt Capital.
However, this rapid pace was not maintained. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, which has changed its trajectory. The acceleration benefit has decreased to approximately 210 days compared to previous cycles. This delay is a critical factor because it could lead to a resynchronization with the typical halving cycle. Typically, BTC peaks 518-546 days after a halving.
The analyst proposes to shift the predictive focus from just halving events to the periods after Bitcoin surpasses its previous all-time highs. Historically, BTC price has tended to reach a bull market top within 266 to 315 days of crossing these thresholds. Since this milestone was reached again in mid-March 2024, the expected window for the next bull market peak could be between late November 2024 and late January 2025.
Nevertheless, one notable trend is the increasing duration during which Bitcoin maintains levels above its old highs. In 2013 this period lasted 268 days, in 2017 it was extended to 280 days and in 2021 it had increased to 315 days.
This pattern suggests a stepwise lengthening of approximately 14 to 35 days per cycle. “Historically, the number of days Bitcoin has spent above the old All Time Highs has increased by approximately 14 days to 35 days,” Rekt Capital explains.
Adding these steps to the initial range of 266 to 315 days after the old highs, the peak could potentially extend to between 280 and 350 days after the outbreak. This adjustment shifts the expected peak time frame to between mid-December 2024 and early March 2025.
Potential synchronization with halving cycles
Despite the current accelerated cycle, there remains a possibility that further slowdown could bring Bitcoin more closely in line with its halving cycle. In previous cycles, such as those between 2015-2017 and 2019-2021, Bitcoin peaked at 518 and 546 days after the halving, respectively. If Bitcoin’s acceleration continues to slow, the cycle could eventually resynchronize, potentially delaying the peak until between mid-September and mid-October 2025.
Rekt Capital explains: “But if Bitcoin continues to reduce its current cycle acceleration, it would resynchronize with traditional halving cycles.” This could result in a peak that better matches historical patterns and deviates from the current accelerated timeline.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $64,262.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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