The biggest lesson from the 2025 cycle? Risky assets officially no longer follow the usual post-halving playbook. With an annual close of 7.85%, the TOTAL crypto market cap has not survived the 2024 halving rally.
In short, the 2024 halving has lowered Bitcoin [BTC] rewards, reducing the amount of new BTC entering the market. Historically, this kind of scarcity leads to a post-halving pump, but this time the market didn’t follow the textbook.
What has changed? Investors realized that Bitcoin ETFs can go both ways. During the Q4 2025 rally, BTC ETFs dumped about $4 billion in a single quarter just as the market was turning off risk, further exacerbating Bitcoin’s dip.
Source: SoSoValue
It is striking that the same dynamics will play out in 2026.
To date, Bitcoin ETFs have posted two consecutive months of outflows, totaling nearly $2.3 billion. That matches BTC’s 21.3% drop and is already starting to trend worst performance in the first quarter since the 2018 cycle.
It’s no surprise that this momentum has spilled over to ETF companies as well. For example, Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock (IBIT) is down 21.5%, adding to last year’s 6.4% loss. As a result, HODLers now find themselves significantly underwater.
Against this backdrop, US President Donald Trump’s media platform, Truth Social, is once again stirring up the market. The big question now: Can its ETF push actually reverse the trend, or could it ultimately pose risks that make it even harder to get pumps after the halving?
Bitcoin faces ETF headwinds despite Trump’s crypto filing
Lately, the president’s every move makes timing even more important.
In this context, President Trump’s media platform, Truth Social, has done just that filed with the SEC for two crypto ETFs. One focuses on Cronos [CRO]while the others are Bitcoin and Ethereum [ETH]along with Ethereum staking.
It is striking that the market responded quickly. Bitcoin rose 4%, still below the $70,000 mark, while ETH rose faster, up 5.2%. This broke the psychological resistance at $2,000, although it is still far from its previous highs.
Source: TradingView (ETHA/USD)
Still, the big ETF players are feeling the heat. BlackRock’s ETH ETF (ETHA) traded at $9.3 million outflowmarking the seventh straight day of redemptions, with ETHA shares 30% underwater so far in 2026.
All in all, one thing is clear: Bitcoin ETFs have become an important signal of market sentiment. Despite the big headlines, the price reaction has been relatively muted, which is a testament to that investors remain cautious.
Under these circumstances, it’s hard to see President Trump’s endorsement of the ETF reversing the trend. Instead, the continued outflows only increase the risk of more pressure on prices and a slowdown in post-halving rallies.
Final summary
- The continued outflows have amplified the dips, with Bitcoin down 21.3% and some ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT and ETHA deeply underwater.
- Despite the SEC filings, investor caution and continued outflows suggest post-halving rallies could still be in jeopardy.