Bitcoin is entering the latter part of 2025 with an unusual setup. Despite setting a new all-time high in October, the price has remained the same since then sufficiently withdrawn to put the annual performance at risk of closing negatively. That difference puts into context how to interpret the current cycle and what it is means for Bitcoin’s price prospects. According to one analyst, the answer is less dramatic than it seems at first glance, and Bitcoin could be on the verge of entering a bear market.
A red close indicates a bear market, not a broken cycle
Bitcoin’s long-term price action has often followed a familiar rhythm, with three consecutive green annual candles eventually giving way to a red close. This series has appeared several times since 2011, leading many traders to expect the same structure to repeat itself in the current cycle. This time, however, the pattern has changed. While both 2023 and 2024 closed in the green, 2025 is on track to end negative, interrupting the usual progress.
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Crypto analyst CryptoBullet noticed that a red close for Bitcoin in 2025 would simply confirm that the cycle has entered a bear phase, not that the four-year cycle has been broken. According to him, the color of the annual candle is often misunderstood. The most important thing is where Bitcoin forms its cycle highs and lows, not whether a specific year ends in green or red after the halving.
He explains that if 2025 closes in the red, the annual candle will probably form a doji candlestick. In technical analysis, doji candles reflect indecision after a strong upward expansion and often lead to trend reversals.
In this context, such a close would correspond to Bitcoin having already reached its cycle top earlier in October, when it reached a new peak of $126,080. In previous cycles, once a new high is reached in the year following the halving, Bitcoin’s price action enters a prolonged corrective phase, regardless of how that year ultimately closes.
Bitcoin chart image from X. Source: @CryptoBullet1
What to expect from Bitcoin in 2026
In response to comments on his technical analysis of he divided for the first time December 2, which also suggests that Bitcoin’s cycle top has already arrived. Bitcoin opened at around $93,396 in 2025 and has since fallen well below the October peak, a structure he said looks very similar to the consolidation following the 2019 peak.
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In that earlier cycle, Bitcoin traded roughly 30% below its high for months, while altcoins, as measured by the OTHERS/BTC chart, formed a cycle bottom and began to recover. CryptoBullet believes the same dynamic is now unfolding, but on a larger scale, with altcoins underperforming Bitcoin for almost four years.
Bitcoin Bear Market Setup. Source: @CryptoBullet1 on X
Based on that setup, he expects a dead cat bounce in early 2026, accompanied by a short-lived rotation into altcoins, before a much deeper correction in Bitcoin as the bear market progresses.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com