Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.
- The market structure was bearish, but the downside momentum has weakened.
- The liquidity pocket above $30,000 made an attractive target for a short squeeze.
The FOMC announcement of a 25 basis point increase did not lead to a sharp move for Bitcoin [BTC] suggesting the event was priced in. There has been little volatility and volume in recent days, but the market structure has favored the bears.
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As BTC has not moved lower in recent days, short positions opened after the move below the lows of the range were vulnerable to pressure. Bitcoin’s static price action following the move below $29.8k suggested that such a squeeze, or even a bullish reversal, could be on the agenda.
The breakdown under the range saw no continued sales pressure
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
The RSI was below the neutral 50 indicating that the bears were still in control over the one day time frame. The OBV fell below a support level from earlier in July. The price has reached a lower low and the indicators agreed with the bearish outlook.
While there are imbalances lower on the charts after the pumps Bitcoin saw in June, it was unclear whether the bears can force a move that far south. The hype surrounding BlackRock, Fidelity and other Bitcoin ETF applicants last month failed to drive prices up. This indicates a change in sentiment.
So until Bitcoin can exit a daily session above $30.5k and hold that zone as support for another day or two, bears would be the more dominant force in the market. On the lower timeframes, a higher move was possible to collect liquidity at $30,000 – $30.5,000. Such a bounce can be used to enter short positions targeting the $28.5k and $27.3k support levels.
The big spike in Bitcoin’s age consumed statistic could be ominous
Source: Sanitation
The 90-day MVRV ratio was slowly declining. This meant that selling pressure from profit takers would ease in the coming days. Still, the average coin age fell on July 27. This was evidence of increased movement of BTC between addresses and an increase in merchant activity.
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It was followed by a huge spike in the age metric used, which concluded that a significant amount of previously inactive BTC was moving.
These developments were a strong signal that a massive selloff could be imminent. Risk-averse buyers may wait for conditions to change before looking for buying opportunities.