- The Puell Multiple needs to rise at least three times higher before Bitcoin can reach the top.
- On-chain data, supported by the MVRV difference, indicated that BTC could cross $85,000.
Except for the recently concluded week, Bitcoin [BTC] found it difficult not to produce a red candlestick within a seven-day span since April. As a result, there are opinions suggesting that the bull run is over.
However, that stance could be invalid given the signals AMBCrypto got from various on-chain metrics. First on the list is Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple.
This metric can provide insight into BTC valuation by looking at miners’ revenues. Using a 365-day moving average, the Puell Multiple indicates whether the coin is at a cycle top or if there is room for the price to rise.
It’s bulls over bears again
Historically, Bitcoin reaches the bull market roof when the multiple rises past a value of 3 or more. For example, the statistic reached a value of 8.13 before the price of BTC started to fall.
In 2017, the Puell Multiple reached 6.12 before the bull market was invalidated. Fast forward to 2021, the score had to reach 3.06 before the capitulation process began.
At the time of writing the metric was, according to Glassnodewas 0.90, indicating that the price of BTC has the potential to move higher.
One thing that AMBCrypto noticed, however, was that the value kept dropping from the previous each time the next cycle reached its peak.
Source: Glassnode
Therefore, there is a chance that the value will not exceed 3 before Bitcoin goes out of business. At the same time, this does not mean that the predictions of $80,000 and more would not come true.
$85,000 is almost a gamble
Another measure that supports this distortion is the long/short difference between market value and realized value (MVRV).
The idea behind the MVRV Long/Short Difference is to determine the value of each Bitcoin holder who purchased the coin compared to the current price.
If the benchmark is 0%, it means Bitcoin has reached the end of a bear market. On the other hand, Bitcoin reaches the end of a bull market when the benchmark is near 100% or above.
Of the the following tableBitcoin’s bear market ended around March 2, 2023. It was around the same time that this bull cycle began.
In 2013, 2017 and 2021 the MVRV long/short difference was 130%, 87% and 69% respectively at the top of the cycle. However, the highest point the metric has reached this cycle was 41%.
Source: Santiment
With this trend, BTC’s price could likely trade higher than the peak it reached in March. Judging by the difference in the statistics of this cycle and 2021, Bitcoin could reach $85,000.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2024-2025
While the coin could also move higher, the $100,000 prediction mentioned in many corners could be tough.
If the price hits the milestone, that’s good for the holders. If not, it might still sound like a good deal to Bitcoin believers.