- Combining the spent output figures showed increased activity from traders in the short term.
- Long-term holders’ conviction in Bitcoin has not waned over the past three weeks.
Bitcoin Review [BTC] On-chain statistics showed that short-term traders sold at a profit.
The price rose above the previous $69,000 ATH, setting a new one at $69,990, based on TradingView data sourced from Binance.
Analysis of CryptoQuant data revealed some interesting trends in the output statistics released.
AMBCrypto noted that long-term holders have not sold significantly over the past month and that a major price correction is not imminent.
Delve deeper into the activities of holders in the short and long term
An analyst CryptoQuant examined Bitcoin’s bull and bear trends since January 2018 using the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR). This measure is a variant of the issued output profit ratio.
The main difference is that the UTXOs with an input-output period of less than one hour are excluded from the aSOPR.
This is done to reduce the noise of the short-lived UTXOs and provide a clearer picture of what BTC holders are doing. Trading activity is filtered out in this way.
Source: CryptoQuant
They found that the average length of growth periods is 235 days. The growth period is when the aSOPR is above 1. At the time of printing we are 140 days into the cycle.
This meant that Bitcoin could find a local top, if not the top of this bull run, in the next 100 to 150 days.
This is not a guarantee, nor is it financial advice, but it is worth investigating further. AMBCrypto combined the findings of the aSOPR with age categories for the output spent.
This was done to better understand whether holders were selling in the short and long term.
Younger Bitcoins are being sold
Source: CryptoQuant
The above age ranges showed that long-term holders (18 months to 5 years old BTC) saw a spike in issued output in mid-January. This was followed by a price correction for Bitcoin from $49k to $38.5k.
Not every such move needs to be immediately followed by a price reaction. Still, there has been a response over the past few times, even though some delay was possible.
This happened in July 2023, when prices started to fall two weeks after the sharp increase in spent production for the older age categories.
Over the past six weeks, the 18 month and older bands haven’t seen much spent output activity. However, we noticed that the aSOPR shows a higher trend. The conclusion was that short-term traders sold at a profit.
However, traders and investors do not need to worry about a major price correction like mid-January at this time.
Source: Santiment
Weighted sentiment data showed strong positivity around BTC over the past two weeks. This was understandable given the proximity to record highs.
One concern was the downward trend in the average coin age. This showed that a distribution phase was underway across the entire network.
How much is 1, 10 or 100 BTC worth today?
The declining average coin age and rising aSOPR once again indicated that short-term holders were selling at a profit.
Since these coins are likely younger (based on the age ranges of issued production), investors should not fear a major price correction.